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本章重點整理
7.1決策的程序
●組織內的每個人，無論是在哪一個層級或身處何處，皆需要做決策(decision)。
圖：決策的程序
步驟1：界定問題
●問題(problem)：難以達成目標或效果的障礙。
●問題的界定是主觀的。
●管理者必需在問題尚未形成之前發掘問題。
●必需對問題三個特性瞭解：察覺問題、隨時準備採取行動、準備各項資源以支援行動所需。
步驟2：設定決策準則
●準策準則(decisioncriteria)：管理者必須決定哪些因素與決策有關。
圖：重要的決策權重
步驟3：決定準則權重
●決定決策準則的權重，最簡單的方法是給最重要的10分。
步驟4：發展方案
●列出問題的各種可行方案，本步驟並不會對各方案加以評估，而是將方案列出。
步驟5：分析方案
●審慎評估每一個方案的項目分數。
●將分數乘以權重，最後算出總分。
圖：各種替代方案
圖：各種替代方案的評估
步驟6：選擇方案
●得分最高者，此例為Dell Inspiron。
步驟7：執行方案
●將結果傳給相關人士，並獲得他們的認同與承諾。
●如果負責執行者有參與決策，將會比被告知者更熱心投入。
步驟8：評估決策的效能
●檢視決策結果是否解決了問題。
●步驟6和7是否達到了預期的效果
7.2管理者也是決策者：管理者所做的任何事幾乎都包含了決策，且大部份決策都是例行性的。
圖：管理者可能需要做的決策項目
●理性的決策：
-理性的決策模式：以公司價值最大化為目標，應用邏輯性且一致性的決策。
●有限理性的決策
-有限理性：在個人資訊處理能力的限制下，於某限制範圍內做出完全理性的決策。
-滿意解：不要求最佳解，只要達到差強人意就好。
-承諾的惡性循環：不願承認最初的決策是錯誤的，寧可一路錯下去。
●直覺式的決策
-直覺式決策：由個人經驗、感覺和判斷累積而成的潛意識決策方式。
-直覺式決策和理性決策並不一定是彼此獨立，相反地，二者是可以互補的。
圖：何謂直覺？
●以事證管理為依據的決策
-依據手邊相關及可靠的證據才做的決策。
-EBMgt四個要素：1.決策的專業及判斷；2.管理者評估的外部事證；3.意見、喜好、股東價值；4.相關的內部因素：包括環境、組織成員。
7.3決策及決策情境的類型
決策的類型
●結構良好的問題：直接、熟悉並容易處理的問題。
●程式化決策：可直接依據標準程序來處理問題。
-已有固定處理方式。
-問題有完整結構。
-依賴過去處理的經驗。
-省略發展方案的過程。
●程序：管理者用來處理結構化問題的一系列相互關連的步驟。
●規則：限定管理者行事範圍的明示條文。
●政策：提供管理者在特殊情境下的思考指引。
●結構不良的問題：所面臨的問題是新的或不常見的，導致資訊是模糊或不完整的。
●非程式化決策：不常處理的問題，需量身訂製特別的解決方案。
圖：問題類型、決策類型
決策情境
●確定：所有可能方案的結果都是已知，使管理者可以輕鬆做出決定。
●風險：決策者需預估各方案成敗與結果的機率。
例：經營一個滑雪場，考慮增加一條纜線，你的決策是新纜線所帶來的收入。
以過去資料來決定是否增加新纜線。
圖：期望收益
●不確定：決策者對可能的結果與機率一無所知。
-樂觀的管理者會選擇『大中取大』(maximax)。
-悲觀的管理者會追求『小中取小』(maximin)。
-另一個管理者會追求『大中取小』(minimax)。
7.4決策風格
線性-非線性思考：每個人的思考方式反映了：1.慣於採用的資訊來源。2.處理資訊是採用線性思考(理性、邏輯、分析)或是非線性思考(直覺、創新、觀察)。
●線性思考：以外部資料為依據，並以理性、邏輯性思考來做決策並行動。
●非線性思考：以感受或直覺性等內在資訊為主，憑直覺做判斷和行動。
決策謬誤
●直覺：管理者做決策最簡單的方式。
圖：常見的決策謬誤
管理決策之總結
決策程序受四個因素影響：決策方法、決策情況、問題類型以及決策者的風格。
圖：管理決策的概要
7.5現代社會的有效決策
一個有效能的決策方案具備六項特質：
1.專注重點。
2.具邏輯性及一致性。
3.同時接納主觀及客觀的想法,並且融合理性分析與直覺判斷。
4.只要求解決特定問題所必要的資訊及分析。
5.綜合研判各種攸關的資訊及意見。
6.直接、可信賴、容易採用並且有彈性。
是非題
(X)1.組織內不是每個人皆需要做決策，更不需在兩個或多個方案中做選擇。P.144
(O)2.管理者必須決定哪些因素與決策有關。P.146
(X)3.在決策程序中的執行方案步驟包含了選出最佳的方案。P.148
(X)4.理性的假設無法確知所有的替代方案及其結果。P.150
(O)5.理性決策和直覺式決策是可以互補的。P.152
(X)6.管理者一旦界定問題後，接下來就是確認溝通準則。P.146
(O)7.程式化的決策適用於重複和例行的情境。P.153
(X)8.管理者所做的任何事情幾乎都包含了決策，且大部分決策是非常態性的。P.149
(O)9.決策風格有以較理性的方式去思考和對不確定性的忍受度較低等不同類型。P.156
(O)10.風險是指決策者可以預估各種情況的可能性。P.155
(風險：決策者需預估各方案成敗與結果的機率。)
選擇題
(c)1.下列何者可代表性地(簡化性)描述做決策這件事？(a)決定什麼是正確(b)在方案上列出優先選擇(c)在方案上做選擇(d)處理結案資訊。P.144
(b)2.直覺式決策是由下列何者和判斷累積而成的潛意識決策方式？(a)旁人經驗(b)個人經驗(c)團體經驗(d)以上皆是。P.151
(d)3.下列何者為決策程序中的第一個步驟？(a)發展決策準則(b)分配準則的權重(c)分析方案(d)界定問題。P.145
(a)4.在決策程序的步驟中，下列何者位在界定問題和決策準則之後？(a)分配準則的權重(b)分析方案(c)挑選最佳的方案(d)執行方案。P.147
(a)5.下列何者為完成決策程序中選擇方案的依據？(a)選擇分數最高的方案(b)選擇最喜歡的那個(c)挑選最不花錢的方案(d)排選最可靠的方案。P.148
(a)6.結構良好的問題最好使用哪一種決策？(a)程式化(b)差強人意(c)直覺式(d)感官式。P.153
(c)7.程式化決策執行傾向依賴下列何者？(a)解決問題者有能力考慮到最底部(b)發展出一套清楚的解決方案(c)先前的解決方法(d)界定實際的問題。P.153
(a)8.以事證管理(EBMgt)的決策有四個要素，以下何者屬之？(a)決策的專業及判斷(b)管理者評估的內部事證(c)意見、喜好、顧客價值(d)相關的外部因素。P.152
(d)9.下列何者為非程式化決策的最佳解釋？(a)循環的，但很難執行(b)在組織的其他方面與問題非常相似(c)在決策者的思考程序需要更多進取的行動(d)比較特別而不常發生。P.154
(c)10.較低階的管理者通常會面對哪種決策類型？(a)獨特的(b)非例行性的(c)程式化的(d)非程式化。P.154 圖7-7(問題類型、決策類型)
問答題
1.為什麼決策是管理者每天的重要工作？
Why is decision making often described as the essence of a manager’s job?
Decisions are made throughout the performance of all four functions of management.
Almost anything a manager does in terms of planning, organizing, leading, and controlling involves decision making. The pervasiveness of decision making in management explains why managers are often called decision makers.
2.決策程序有哪八個步驟？
Describe the eight steps in the decision-making process.
The decision-making process consists of eight steps:
(1) identify problem; (2) identify decision criteria; (3) weight the criteria; (4) develop alternatives; (5) analyze alternatives; (6) select alternative; (7) implement alternative; and (8) evaluate decision effectiveness.
(1) identify problem; (2) identify decision criteria; (3) weight the criteria; (4) develop alternatives; (5) analyze alternatives; (6) select alternative; (7) implement alternative; and (8) evaluate decision effectiveness.
3.試比較管理者四個不同的決策制定方式？
Compare and contrast the four ways managers make decisions.
The assumptions of rationality are as follows: the problem is clear and unambiguous; a single, well-defined goal is to be achieved; all alternatives and consequences are known; and the final choice will maximize the payoff. Bounded rationality says that managers make rational decisions but are bounded (limited) by their ability to process information. Satisficing happens when decision makers accept solutions that are good enough. With escalation of commitment, managers increase commitment to a decision even when they have evidence it may have been a wrong decision. Intuitive decision making means making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment. Using evidence based management, a manager makes decisions based on the best available evidence.
4.組織文化對管理者的決策有什麼影響？
How might an organization’s culture influence the way managers make decisions?
An organization’s culture might influence how managers make decisions by indicating how much risk taking is permitted and how much importance is placed on the effectiveness of the decisions made. For example, if an organizational culture rewards decisions that reinforce the status quo, these types of decisions will likely be made.
5.請說明問題與決策的兩種型態，並比較三種決策情境。
Explain the two types of problems and decisions.
Contrast the three decision-making conditions.
Programmed decisions are repetitive decisions that can be handled by a routine approach and are used when the problem being resolved is straightforward, familiar, and easily defined (structured). Nonprogrammed decisions are unique decisions that require
a custom- made solution and are used when the problems are new or unusual (unstructured) and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete. Certainty is a situation in which a manager can make accurate decisions because all outcomes are known. Risk is a situation in which a manager can estimate the likelihood of certain outcomes. Uncertainty is a situation in which a manager is not certain about the outcomes and can’t even make reasonable probability estimates.
6.決策謬誤會有什麼後果？可能會有正面的影響嗎？這些對管理者的決策有什麼涵義？
All of us bring biases to the decisions we make. What would be the drawbacks of having biases? Could there be any advantages to having biases? Explain.
What are the implications for managerial decision making?
Students should be encouraged to identify biases that they have encountered or feel that they themselves might have. Examples could include the halo/horn effect, cultural biases, and age biases. The drawback of biases is their limiting effect on behavior.
However, when managers are aware of potential biases, they can use their awareness to an advantage. They can better recognize biases held by others and respond more effectively as a result of their knowledge. Managers should be aware that biases can “cloud” a decision maker’s identification or evaluation of alternatives, which ultimately affect the final decision.
7.你認為自己是線性思考抑或非線性思考？這兩種思考對決策有什麼影響？這對你以後的工作選擇也會有影響嗎？
Would you call yourself a linear or nonlinear thinker?
What are the decision-making implications of these labels?
What are the implications for choosing where you want to work?
Student responses to these questions will vary. A systematic thinker is one who is more logical and rational in searching for and processing information. An intuitive thinker relies more on instincts and past experiences in searching for and processing information. The decision-making implication of this label is that it describes the way we think or process information and in turn, influences how we tend to make decisions. Organizations need both systematic and intuitive thinkers. Each of these styles provides a different erspective.
8.『管理者開始使用電腦及軟體後，比較能做出理性決策。』你同意這段敘述嗎？為什麼？
“As managers use computers and software tools more often, they’ll be able to make more rational decisions.”
Do you agree or disagree with this statement? Why?
Although computer and software tools allow managers to gather information and analyze it more efficiently, utilizing computers does not necessarily allow managers to be more rational. Looking at the assumptions of rationality (see Exhibit 7.7), it is apparent that adding computers to the decision-making process does not guarantee perfectly rational decision making by managers.
9.管理者在決策過程中如何混用理性與有限理性決策？這可能會發生嗎？
How can managers blend the guidelines for making effective decisions in today’s world with the rationality and bounded rationality models of decision making, or can they? Explain.
A balance is required. Under today’s business conditions (such as intense time pressure and higher degrees of risk and uncertainty), managers must practice sound decisionmaking approaches. Knowing when it’s time to quit, for example, is not inconsistent with
rationality and bounded rationality.
10.錯誤的決策與不良的決策有分別嗎？為什麼一些表現良好的管理者會制定錯誤的決策和不良的決策？管理者如何改善決策技巧？
Is there a difference between wrong decisions and bad decisions?
Why do good managers sometimes make wrong decisions? Bad decisions? How can managers improve their decision-making skills?
Time pressures, incomplete information, and higher levels of uncertainty in today’s business environment may lead to ineffective decision making. Managers can improve their decision-making skills by focusing on six characteristics of effective decisionmaking,
including focusing on important criteria, logic and consistency; blending subjective and objective thinking with analysis; requiring the information necessary to resolve a particular dilemma; gathering relevant and informed opinions; and remaining flexible.
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NTUT101年度上學期 (5)
